TOSS-UP (4)

DISTRICT 5
Carl Marcellino (incumbent) vs. James Gaughran

Counties: Nassau and Suffolk
Last election: Marcellino 50.6 percent, Gaughran 49.4 percent
2016 presidential election: Clinton +3
Voter registration: 77,226 active Democrats, 72,256 active Republicans, 58,196 non-affiliated

State Sen. Carl Marcellino has held his seat for 23 years. However, he had a razor-thin margin of victory 2016 of only 1.2 percentage points. Gaughran, the Suffolk County Water Authority chairman who nearly beat Marcellino two years ago, is running again. In what could possibly be a boon for Gaughran as well is the fact the district pivoted in the 2016 presidential election. It was carried by Mitt Romney in 2012, but was carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Additionally, Steve Stern managed to flip the 10th Assembly District blue for the first time in 40 years in his special election. That district heavily overlaps with Marcellino’s. Gaughran has nearly $129,000 on hand, compared to Marcellino’s $111,000, according to their most recent filings in July.