ALBANY — After months in which both parties have hyped their chances in a slew of state Senate races, financial disclosure forms released earlier this week provided the first real look at which races they think are actually worth investing in.
Four races stand out as the ones that have attracted the most interest from the parties’ centralized accounts and super PACs in the state — those held by Democratic Sen. John Brooks and Republican Sen. Carl Marcellino, and those being vacated by Republicans John DeFrancisco and Bill Larkin. There are 11 others that have attracted notable amounts of spending, most of which are currently held by the Republicans who are attempting to hold onto a one-seat majority.
Money isn’t the only factor that goes into winning races, as illustrated by September’s defeat of six former IDC members who outspent their challengers. But in a year in which there have been no public polls on individual Senate races, the decision of a group to invest hundreds of thousands of dollars into a race after conducting an internal poll is a pretty good indicator they expect it to be close.
The 15 most competitive races are listed below, as well as six others that are worth keeping an eye on. The names are listed in the order in which they’ll appear on the ballot, with Democrats being listed before Republicans. Incumbents’ names are capitalized.
All totals reflect activity from mid-January through the beginning of October unless otherwise noted.
THE TOP TIER
SD5: James Gaughran v. CARL MARCELLINO (north central Long Island)
Marcellino’s district has been in Republican hands since something resembling it was created after World War II, and the current occupant had easily beat back a few serious contenders since he took office in 1995. But Democrats took it more seriously than normal two years ago, and Gaughran managed to receive 49.4 percent of the vote.
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They seem to be ramping up their efforts even more during Gaughran’s second bid for the seat, and Republicans have responded.
Gaughran has spent $464,000 this year, thanks in part to $191,000 in transfers from the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, and he still has $72,000 in the bank. The Senate Republican Campaign Committee has transferred $318,000 to Marcellino, who has spent $409,000 and has $163,000 remaining. DSCC has independently made an additional $158,000 in expenses benefiting Gaughran, and SRCC has spent $118,000 on Marcellino.
Outside groups have also started to get involved on Gaughran’s behalf. The New York State United Teachers’ Fighting for Our Future independent expenditure committee has spent $336,000 aiding him, while New Yorkers Together, which has primarily been funded by Communications Workers of America, has spent $50,000.
(So far this year, the vast majority of super PAC spending across the state has benefited Democrats. But a few super PACs that have historically backed Republicans have been conducting polls in recent weeks, so it’s very possible the outside spending will be leveled out soon).
SD8: JOHN BROOKS v. Jeff Pravato (south central Long Island)
The race is the most important in the Republican path to maintaining a majority. Brooks won his seat with 50.1 percent of the vote after the incumbent’s father was arrested on federal corruption charges two weeks before Election Day in 2016, causing Republicans to label him an “accidental” senator.
Given the sheer number of competitive seats won by Republicans two years ago, there’s a good chance that even if the blue wave doesn’t fully come to the state Legislature, Democrats will find a way to flip at least one of them. Republicans will thus need to flip one Democratic seat to maintain their majority, and this is the strongest contender by a wide margin.
Early indications are that the GOP is indeed willing to sink resources into pulling off a victory here. SRCC has made $179,000 in outside expenditures on behalf of Massapequa Park Mayor Jeff Pravato. His committee has spent $397,000, thanks in part to $217,000 in transfers from SRCC, and has $73,000 remaining in the bank.
Democrats maintain that Brooks is a good senator, and now that he’s in office he’ll be tough to remove. They’ve put their money behind that belief, with DSCC spending $390,000 on Brooks. They also transferred him a further $147,000, which helped his committee spend $421,000 so far this year. He began October with $95,000 left over.
Brooks has also benefited from $33,000 in spending by NYSUT and $51,000 from New Yorkers Together.
SD39: James Skoufis v. Tom Basile (Newburgh and nearby towns)
Democrats have targeted this district repeatedly in the past, but never seemed to give it their all until popular World War II veteran Bill Larkin announced his retirement earlier this year. Assemblyman James Skoufis, who publicly weighed a run in 2016 but ultimately decided he wouldn’t take on Larkin, is now running with the full support of the Democratic establishment.
Skoufis has spent $564,000 so far this year, an amount enabled by a close financial relationship with DSCC. The centralized committee has transferred $165,000 to him and spent $193,000 on his behalf; Skoufis has transferred DSCC $45,000 in August and DSCC’s most recent filing shows that he sent it a further $150,000 at the beginning of October that does not show up in his own filing.
Without subtracting this $150,000, Skoufis had $310,000 remaining in the bank, significantly more than the $33,000 Basile reported.
But the Republican has managed to outspend his opponent with $590,000 in expenses this year, thanks in part to $288,000 in transfers from SRCC, which has also spent $106,000 on independent purchases benefiting their candidate.
Basile also became the first Republican to benefit from super PAC spending this year, as the Republican State Leadership Committee’s Balance New York PAC spent $90,000 on ads on his behalf earlier this week. NYSUT has spent $110,000 on Skoufis, while Airbnb has spent $51,000.
SD50: John Mannion v. Bob Antonacci (parts of Syracuse, Auburn and the towns between the two)
Democrats hadn’t bothered to run a candidate in the Democratic-leaning seat held by popular Deputy Majority Leader John DeFrancisco. But with DeFrancisco retiring after an unsuccessful gubernatorial run, they’re optimistic they can win in an open race.
They’ve sent $147,000 to Mannion, accounting for about half of the $285,000 he's spent this year, and made a further $270,000 in expenditures on his behalf. Republicans have sent $76,000 to three-term Onondaga County Comptroller Bob Antonacci, who has spent $111,000, and made a further $32,000 in purchases on his behalf.
Antonacci entered October with $258,000 remaining to Mannion’s $44,000. That difference let the Republican send out a press release on Tuesday mocking Mannion’s “relentlessly negative campaign” for being “nearly broke for [the] stretch run.”
But Mannion, a biology teacher, has a financial juggernaut on his side. He has also worked as a union representative, and NYSUT just happens to have been the biggest spender in the state two years ago after putting $5.8 million into campaigns. As of Wednesday afternoon, the union’s independent expenditure committee had spent $477,000 on behalf of Mannion. That accounts for nearly 40 percent of the money that every super PAC has spent on every general election candidate in the state so far.
OTHER COMPETITIVE RACES
SD7: Anna Kaplan v. ELAINE PHILLIPS (northwest Nassau County)
SD9: TODD KAMINSKY v. Fran Becker (southwest Nassau County)
These two seats were the most expensive in the state in 2016, with the two parties spending a total of $7.5 million in the race that was ultimately won by Phillips and a combined $8.8 million in special and general elections that were both won by Kaminsky.
So far, however, there’s not much reason to think either will compete for any spending records this year. Phillips, a Republican, has outspent Kaplan $457,000 to $104,000 so far, thanks in large part to $345,000 in transfers from SRCC, and currently has $478,000 to her foe’s $166,000. SRCC has spent an additional $117,000 bolstering freshman Phillips, and NYSUT has put $17,000 into Kaplan’s race. DSCC, to date, has sat the race out.
Kaminsky, one of the state’s strongest fundraisers, has spent $264,000 and has $730,000 remaining. Becker has spent $23,000 and has $25,000. No independent money has entered the race.
Kaminsky has also dominated the endorsement race so handily that he’s won a few backers that would normally be expected to embrace Republicans — consider that he and the GOP-allied Simcha Felder were the only two Democratic Senate candidates to be supported by the Business Council.
SD3 Monica Martinez v. Dean Murray (south central Suffolk County)
SD4 Lou D’Amaro v. PHIL BOYLE (southwest Suffolk County)
SD6: Kevin Thomas v. KEMP HANNON (Nassau County, including Garden City and Levittown)
Democrats have been or hope to be competitive in three additional Long Island races, but so far, none of them have been the destinations of any big money.
The only outside expenditure in any of these three districts came in the form of $54,000 from SRCC benefiting Assemblyman Dean Murray, who has spent $104,000 and has $53,000 remaining. Suffolk County Legislator Monica Martinez has spent $125,000 and has $53,000 in the race to fill the vacancy left by the retirement of Republican Tom Croci.
Boyle has won reelection with more than 62 percent of the vote in each of his past two races, but Democrats are hopeful his unsuccessful campaign to be Suffolk County’s sheriff last year and other recent Republican defeats in his corner of the state might suggest he’s vulnerable. Former Suffolk County Legislator Lou D’Amaro has spent $141,000 and has $28,000; Boyle has spent $66,000 and has $181,000.
Seemingly due to cyclical turnout patterns, Hannon has a long history of winning nail-biters in years in which a presidential election tops the ticket and running up big margins in years like 2018 when a gubernatorial contest is the most prominent in the state. He has spent $66,000 his year, leaving him with $458,000, while Thomas has spent $30,000 and has $41,000.
SD22: Andrew Gounardes v. MARTY GOLDEN (Brooklyn)
This district has not been competitive in the past, with Democrats not exerting any resources into ending Golden’s tenure as one of the three members of the Republican conference from New York City.
So far, at least, the financial picture doesn’t indicate this has drastically changed. Gounardes has spent $239,000, most of which went toward a September primary, and entered October with $100,000. Golden has spent $461,000 and has $392,000.
Big expenses from outside groups have largely been absent from the race thus far. DSCC has spent $44,000 on behalf of Gounardes, though that total only represents about 2 percent of the money the committee has spent on candidates so far this year.
But Democrats insist they are well-positioned to win there this year. Notably, the seat is the only one that most of the volunteers who played a major role in ousting the city-based members of the IDC can easily reach by public transportation, so it’s possible a lack of money can be offset by feet on the ground. They’ve also repeatedly highlighted a recent New York Daily News story that said Republicans will pay for hotel costs for any volunteers who want to work for Golden as evidence the GOP is indeed beginning to fret about the incumbent’s chances. If the coming weeks do indeed provide more evidence both parties are taking this race seriously, there’s a good chance it might be worth bumping up to the top tier before October ends. It’s worth keeping an eye on whether NYSUT gets involved after paying to conduct a poll on Tuesday.
SD40: Pete Harckham v. TERRENCE MURPHY (Peekskill and the Connecticut border)
Democrats have targeted this seat once held by George Pataki for years but have rarely come close to winning. The one reason they might have cause for hope this time around is that Harckham was recruited and endorsed by district resident Andrew Cuomo, who received only 46 percent of the vote on his home turf in 2014.
There’s room to doubt, however, the idea that many other Democrats are as optimistic about his candidacy. Harckham’s name has been conspicuously absent from lists of endorsements such as one of nine Senate candidates released by former President Barack Obama and another of a dozen from the grassroots groups that worked against the IDC. The Civil Service Employees Association, often a swing endorser in Senate races, announced two weeks ago it is endorsing Murphy.
The incumbent has spent $211,000 so far, leaving him with $383,000. Harckham, who had a primary in September, has spent $115,000 and has $30,000. The only outside money coming into the district has been $34,000 from SRCC.
SD41: Karen Smythe v. SUE SERINO (Poughkeepsie and surrounding areas)
SD42: Jen Metzger v. Ann Rabbitt (New Paltz and the parts of the state closest to northeast Pennsylvania)
SD43: Aaron Gladd v. Daphne Jordan (the eastern Capital District, including Saratoga and Rensselaer)
SD46: Pat Strong v. GEORGE AMEDORE (the western Capital District and northern Ulster County)
Two of these districts bordering the northern Hudson were won by Democrats in 2012, and the other two are open races that have been held by Republicans for decades, but have electoral histories that suggest it’s plausible to imagine Democrats flipping them. So far, however, none of them have been the sites of massive amounts of spending.
The biggest spender so far has been Smythe, who currently has $144,000 and whose tab in recent months has come to $479,000. This includes a $150,000 transfer to DSCC, which has transferred her $193,000 back and made an additional $21,000 in outside purchases to her benefit. Serino spent $63,000 and has $211,000.
Amedore, A Republican, has spent $55,000 this year to Strong’s $95,000. The incumbent entered October with $201,000 to his challenger’s $118,000.
In the seat being vacated by Republican Kathy Marchione, Gladd has $260,000 remaining after spending $64,000. Halfmoon Board Member Daphne Jordan spent $140,000 after receiving $60,000 from SRCC, and has $55,000 remaining.
Rosendale Council Member Jen Metzger has been the top spender in outgoing Republican John Bonacic’s district, having expended $135,000 to Orange County Clerk Ann Rabbitt’s $49,000. Metzger has $222,000 to Rabbitt’s $125,000.
The money spent by the candidates in these districts might not be as significant as elsewhere. Outside of television advertisements, one of the top goals of having a large war chest is the ability to encourage a candidate’s base to get to the polls. And these seats all overlap with the congressional district in which national parties are sinking millions of dollars in support of GOP Rep. John J. Faso and Democratic challenger Antonio Delgado. It’s thus possible the candidates on either side of the aisle can benefit from a sort of trickle-down get-out-the-vote effect.
OTHER RACES WORTH WATCHING
SD11: John Liu v. Vickie Paladino, Simon Minching (Conservative Party) and TONY AVELLA (Independence Party and Women's Equality Party) (Queens)
SD53: Rachel May v. Janet Burman and DAVE VALESKY (IP and WEP) (Syracuse and towns to its east)
SD38: DAVID CARLUCCI v. C. Scott Vanderhoef (Ossining and southern Rockland County)
While the IDC seemed to have been relegated to the history books when six of the former conference’s eight members were defeated in primaries in September, the conference could still play a role in November’s races.
Avella announced on Monday he will campaign on a pair of minor-party lines. He’s pledged to conference with Democrats should he be elected, so the race shouldn’t have an impact on the overall partisan makeup of Albany unless inter-party squabbling somehow helps the Republican or Conservative candidates win election in a deeply blue district.
Former New York City Comptroller John Liu has managed to raise $53,000 since his primary, and has $114,000 in the bank and an army of grassroots volunteers at his disposal. Avella has raised no money in recent weeks, and has $17,000 in the bank.
Valesky has decided to stop actively campaigning. But he’ll remain on the ballot, raising the possibility he still might siphon some Democratic votes in a district that comfortably leans toward the party, but is far from an automatic win.
But primary victor May has a clear financial edge over her Republican foe. She currently has $66,000 to spend, compared to Burman’s $167. The DSCC has also spent $24,000 bolstering its nominee.
Carlucci was one of the only two IDC members to win their primaries last month. His district strongly favors Democrats, though it’s not impossible to imagine a scenario in which months of attacks against the incumbent from members of his own party has eroded his support.
Republicans have suggested the seat might be winnable, but Carlucci is the only candidate who has engaged in real fundraising so far. He has $245,000 after spending $443,000 during primary season, while former Rockland County Executive C. Scott Vanderhoef has $21,000 after spending $3,000.
SD55: Jen Lunsford v. RICH FUNKE (East Rochester and nearby towns)
SD56: Jeremy Cooney v. JOE ROBACH (much of Rochester and nearby towns)
The Democrats that are making the most noise about a potentially unprecedented year in which they flip more than a handful of seats often point to these two Rochester-area districts as the sorts of places where they might win if everything goes right. Both have Democratic enrollment advantages, and Funke’s seat was won by a Democrat as recently as 2012.
Both Lunsford (who has spent $30,000 and has $61,000 left) and Cooney (who has spent $117,000 and has $33,000) have raised respectable if not eye-popping amounts of money so far. But DSCC has thus far apparently not found their races worth a financial investment, and neither has drawn much support from the types of donors like labor unions that are always eager to bolster Democrats in competitive races.
Funke, meanwhile, has $187,000 after spending $339,000. Robach has $264,000 after spending $296,000.
SD60: Carima El-Behairy v. CHRIS JACOBS (Parts of Buffalo and its suburbs)
The district was drawn to favor moderate Republican Mark Grisanti in 2012. It has a sizable Democratic enrollment advantage, but contains many of the sorts of Democrats who are open to voting Republican, and none of the party’s Senate candidates have ever won a majority of the vote there.
Jacobs currently has $484,000 in the bank, while El-Behairy had $28,000 when she last filed a disclosure report in July.